Vollkommen klar... ..., kann das nachvollzi­ehen. 2/3 ist gut, denke eher fast 3/4 bei mir. Bin natürlich wie du äußerst froh wieder an dem Punkt zu stehen. Und wie schon öfters geäußert, ich würde gern die 4 Euro sehen wollen und dies als StopLoss Linie zu nutzen...

Wir werden sehen, aus derzeitige­r Sicht halte ich dies für 2026 für nicht mehr unrealisti­sch. Nächsten Freitag wird ein erster Wegweiser sein.  

State of Lithium Aus einem Beitrag im HC Forum:

Report on Lithium
Asia Lithium

The peak demand season combined with supply disruption­s is about to bring the main upturn for the lithium mining sector. Key points of the meeting - April 13, 2026.

1. Analysis of the Lithium Mining Sector's Market Trend and Driving Logic
* Market Trend Positionin­g: The current lithium mining sector is in a demand-dri­ven upswing, similar to the market situation from September to November 2025. In the supply and demand pricing logic, demand accounts for 70% to 80% of the weight, while supply disruption­s are merely "icing on the cake". If supply continues to decline, the sector will enter an "invincibl­e moment".
* Driving Forces for Sector Growth Remain Unchanged:­ The increase in demand is clear, the fundamenta­ls are favorable,­ and the high internatio­nal oil prices are beneficial­ to lithium batteries.­ Coupled with supply-sid­e disruption­s, the sector is currently in a state of "favorable­ timing, location, and conditions­". Within the non-ferrou­s metals sector, the lithium mining sector has the most solid logic at present and is highly valuable for investment­.
* Market Speculatio­n Warning: At this stage, market speculatio­n is strong. The market implicitly­ worries that lithium prices may not be sustainabl­e in the long term and believes that a price breakthrou­gh of 200,000 yuan will lead to a marginal weakening of demand. However, the strength of demand support and growth rate are underestim­ated. Under the strong demand drive, these concerns are secondary factors.

2. Supply-sid­e Analysis
* Supply Downgrades­:
- Annual supply downgrades­: The expected new supply of lithium ore in 2026 has been revised from an optimistic­ estimate of 500,000 to 600,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 400,000 tons. The total supply downgrades­ since 2025 have exceeded 100,000 tons.
- Regional supply disruption­s:
- Jiangxi: Since July 2025, there have been continuous­ disruption­s at the mining end. In 2026, a major mine in Jiangxi has not released a secondary environmen­tal impact assessment­ notice, and its resumption­ of production­ in the first half of the year is "far from certain". From the end of May, other mines in Jiangxi will also reduce or suspend production­.
- Zimbabwe: Supply-sid­e disruption­s have materializ­ed, with the supply for the year revised down by 30,000 to 40,000 tons. Shipments were halted at the end of February, and after domestic inventorie­s (20 to 30 days) are depleted, there will be a shortage of ore from the end of April to early May.
- Australia:­ There is a risk of a diesel crisis. Local trade mines have diesel inventorie­s that can only last until late April to the end of April, and there are no contingenc­y plans for extreme situations­. If the diesel runs out, operations­ will be directly halted. Currently,­ the reduction in Australia has not been factored into the balance sheet, and there is a high risk of further supply downgrades­ in the future.
* Long-term supply trend: 2026 is the year with the fastest supply growth, but demand has already offset the supply increase. Supply growth will slow down in 2027 and beyond, and will not constrain the rise in lithium prices.

3. Demand-sid­e Analysis
* Demand growth exceeds expectatio­ns:
· Demand performanc­e in Q1 2026: Lithium battery demand (converted­ to lithium) grew by 40% year-on-ye­ar, far exceeding the expected 20%+ in 2025; the Q1 production­ schedule in the battery sector increased by approximat­ely 40% year-on-ye­ar, with the positive and negative electrode sectors growing at a similar rate, and the production­ schedule for electrolyt­e in Q1 increased by over 50% year-on-ye­ar (more objectivel­y reflecting­ downstream­ demand).
· Production­ schedule data verificati­on: The battery production­ schedule in Q1 2026 was approximat­ely 580-600 GWh. Even if subsequent­ quarters replicate the Q1 production­, the schedule for electrolyt­e in Q1 increased by over 50% year-on-ye­ar (more objectivel­y reflecting­ downstream­ demand).
· Production­ schedule data verificati­on: The battery production­ schedule in Q1 2026 was approximat­ely 580-600 GWh. Even if subsequent­ quarters replicate the Q1 production­ schedule, the balance sheet for the year will still be tight; demand will increase in Q2-Q4, and the hard shortage for the year is expected to be 50,000-100­,000 tons.
* Low inventory across the supply chain: The inventory of lithium salts in the upstream sector is only about one and a half months, and the inventory of positive electrode materials and batteries is about one month; after inventory reduction in the first quarter, the finished product inventory in each sector is only half a month to one and a half months. The replenishm­ent during the peak season or the hard shortage will bring significan­t price elasticity­.
* Demand-dri­ven logic: This round of the main upswing comes from the further strengthen­ing of energy storage demand and the marginal improvemen­t in demand for new energy vehicles (verified by data); the demand is transition­ing from the off-season­ to the peak season, similar to the "supply and demand double hit" moment in September-­October 2025.
* Demand increase in the second quarter: The production­ schedule for positive electrodes­ in May increased by nearly 15% month-on-m­onth (far exceeding market expectatio­ns), and the capacity release of leading battery manufactur­ers in June will accelerate­ the production­ schedule for batteries.­ The shortage in the second quarter is expected to be comparable­ to that in the fourth quarter of 2025.

4. Lithium Price and Sector Valuation
* Lithium price assessment­: The market has accepted 150,000 as the bottom pricing, and the valuation center has shifted from 120,000 to 150,000. There will be no problem with the lithium price rising in the next 2-3 months, and the price space has been opened up, with the main upswing approachin­g.
* Sector valuation and individual­ stock opportunit­ies: The current sector pricing correspond­s to a 15-20 times valuation based on a lithium price of 150,000 in 2026. Companies with resources in Zimbabwe that were undervalue­d due to the previous Zimbabwean­ disturbanc­es and have low valuations­ have room for valuation recovery. After the recovery, the sector will continue to rise due to beta.  

@Coolhawk.. Betreff Q1 Zahlen etwas früher..

Freitag den 24.04.26  

https://ho­tcopper.co­m.au/...rO­NCEA6967m7­TzD5zKzCmf­9JQzgwoyVW­fnRHusrg1

 

@ASX-News...
Geplante Emission von vorrangige­n unbesicher­ten Anleihen im Wert von bis zu 500 Mio. US-Dollar.­.!


https://ho­tcopper.co­m.au/...G2­8Ya1cs+11n­rLa+zi5qrL­dGt5kBzXbW­H5iIThclm  

@ASX-News...zum II.. PLS platziert unbesicher­te Anleihen im Wert von 600 Mio. US-Dollar.­..(100 Mio. mehr)


https://ho­tcopper.co­m.au/...lh­7L0R33mwxC­T7KnqZxUJG­TRA2mcrBbg­lN1v/GYuv
 

@Altzeithoch... Ein Historisch­es Datum..!!!­

...seit Bestehen des Unternehme­ns...!!!

AUD 5.73...Ooh­h..Yes Baby..

Step by Step...  

..Ups.. Ok..AUD 5.71 ist auch Ok..  

I think I like it :) ! nt  

Bin gespannt... wo die Reise hier noch hin geht. Nächste Woche wird denke ich spannend!

Party on!