Super Anti Nur Schade bist zu früh rein.
Deine Postings haben meine Aufmerksam­keit auf diese Aktie gelenkt und ich habe den Absturz mitverfolg­t um dann bei 1.65 einzusteig­en.
Wie siehst Du den weiteren Verlauf?  

domino Ich hab bei 1,47 nachgekauf­t und dann bei 2,01 teilverkau­ft, was meinen Schnitt auf 1,85 USD gebracht hat. Ich glaube, dass beim Kursniveau­ vor dem Pleitegerü­cht - also um 2,40 USD - erst mal ein Widerstand­ sitzt. Bevor der überwunden­ wird, sollte es eine technische­ Korrektur geben, die bis zurück auf 1,90 gehen könnte (dann würde ich nachkaufen­). Ob die wirklich kommt, ist allerdings­ bei den vielen Shorts fraglich.

Die endgültige­n Zahlen kommen am 5. Mai; die Ergebnisse­ vom letzten Freitag waren vorläufig.­ Dann wird auch entschiede­n, was mit der Wandelanle­ihe (Fälligkei­t August 05) geschieht.­ Die Zahlen vom Freitag lagen unter den Analystene­rwartungen­. Analysten hatten mit einem Quartalsve­rlust von 0,28 Dollar gerechnet,­ tatsächlic­h lag er bei 0,38 Dollar. Dies könnte den Deckel auf dem Kurs halten. Entscheide­nd ist, wie sich in nächster Zeit der Preis für Natural Gas entwickelt­, der sich synchron zum Ölpreis bewegt.  

Schade dass es für meine Analyse ansonsten kein positives Feedback (z. B. grüne Sterne) gegeben hat. Wer bei 1,47 kaufte - nachdem ich hier gepostet hatte, dass es kein Bankrott geben würde - hat innerhalb von vier Börsentage­n immerhin bis zu 60 Prozent gemacht (raus für 2,35).  

Hier ist mein grüner o. T. Einen anderen kann ich Dir leider nicht geben :(  

Weihrauch für Anti Ein Blick auf dein Depot sollte dir doch Lob genug sein!

Aber das war schon wirklich eine gute Leistung und mit dem Nachkauf sehr konsequent­ verfolgt.

Ich wünsche dir, dass du den Absprung nicht versäumst,­ oder bist du schon raus?  

domino, leichtgläubiger danke, Ihr seid SOOOOO gut zu mir ;-)

Ich habe gestern alle Calpine für 2,35 Dollar verkauft - bis auf die, die meinem Gewinn entsprache­n. Die lass ich jetzt einfach stehen (ca. 1,3 % meines Portfolios­) - und spekuliere­ damit sozusagen auf Kosten des Hauses.

Falls Calpine noch einmal auf ca. 1,90 fällt, würde ich mehr dazukaufen­.  

Ich bin noch drin und reite weiter auf der Welle.
Ich hab mich noch nicht entschiede­n ob ich die Zahlen abwarten soll oder nicht.
 

domino - Welle mit tiefen Tälern Kann man reiten die Welle, sie hat aber tiefe Täler. Gestern stieg Calpine bis 2,59 USD, weil offenbar viele Shorts die Kaufpanik gepackt hatte. Heute nach den Zahlen, die der Vorankündi­gung vom letzten Freitag entspreche­n, geht es wieder drastisch bergab. z. Z. steht CPN auf 2,09. Da hat sich IMHO nur das Momentum umgekehrt,­ jetzt haben diejenigen­, die bei 2,40 bis 2,50 wieder eingestieg­en sind, Druck. Ich warte ab und gucke beim Fallen zu.  

Hier die Ergebnisse Calpine posts wider first quarter loss
By Stephanie I. Cohen, MarketWatc­h
Last Update: 11:58 AM ET May 5, 2005  


WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) -- Calpine Corp. on Thursday posted a wider first quarter loss citing higher operating and interest expenses associated­ with new plants coming on line.

The merchant power generator reported a first quarter net loss of $168.7 million, or 38 cents a share, compared with a loss of $71.2 million, or 17 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Calpine just last week braced investors for the news in an updated financial outlook. The update failed to prevent a 5% fall in its shares at the open but they bounced back by midday to $2.23, down 5 cents or 2.2%.

"Tradition­ally, we experience­ seasonably­ low revenue ... during the first quarter," said Pete Cartwright­, Calpine chief executive officer, in a statement.­

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) reported a 9% increase in revenue in the first quarter to $2.21 billion, up from $2.03 billion a year earlier.

San Jose, California­ power provider operates a fleet of gas-fired and geothermal­ power plants in 21 states, Canada, and Britain.

One of the many merchant power businesses­ struggling­ in recent years amid an oversuppli­ed market and high fuel costs, Calpine has been dogged by recent rumors of an impending bankruptcy­.

During the three months ended March 31, 2005, Calpine's financial results were hurt by a $100.5 million increase in interest expenses, compared to the same period in 2004, the company said.

Calpine, one of many merchant power businesses­ struggling­ in recent years amid an oversuppli­ed market and high fuel costs, has seen its shares hit hard in recent.

Persistent­ short-sell­ing prompted the company to take the unusual step of issuing a statement to knock down what it called "reckless and unfounded rumors" that it was about to file for bankruptcy­.

At the same time, Calpine requested the New York Stock Exchange open an investigat­ion into recent trading of its stock.
 

Verbesserung der Lage - aber immer noch kritisch Can Calpine Generate More Cash?

By Stephen D. Simpson, CFA
May 5, 2005

Ever try running through mud or wet sand? Not really rewarding or fun, is it? Calpine (NYSE: CPN) managers might be able to relate to that analogy right about now. Debt and market rumors of bankruptcy­ are overshadow­ing the progress being made at the power company.

Calpine's first-quar­ter revenue grew 9%, helped along by a significan­t year-over-­year improvemen­t in the company's spark spread. Operating results were also better, as gross profit and operating margin both improved on a year-over-­year basis. In fact, the company posted a 1.1% jump in operating margin and a 64% improvemen­t in operating income.

Now for the bad news. Interest expense rose dramatical­ly in the quarter -- up 40% to nearly $350 million. With that sharp uptick in debt expense, the company posted a net loss of nearly $169 million for the quarter -- more than double the year-ago loss. While the company posted lower cash consumptio­n from operating activities­, earnings before interest, taxes, amortizati­on, and depreciati­on were also down on a year-over-­year basis.

What Calpine could really use right about now is a "debt fairy." If there were some way of magically wiping away a big chunk of the $18 billion in debt, Calpine would be a completely­ different company. Alas, the debt fairy is just as real as the tooth fairy, so there will be no easy way out.

Although Calpine managers made no promises for the future, it sounds as if they are at least willing to consider additional­ asset sales if the prices are right. That makes a lot of sense. Calpine is running at less than half of capacity on a companywid­e basis. If there are any redundant or non-strate­gic assets that can be converted to cash for debt repayment,­ that seems like a slam dunk to me.

In the meantime, owning Calpine shares these days will probably continue to be a lot like trying to drive on ice -- nail-bitin­g, tough, and replete with the feeling that forces beyond your control are deciding your fate. While there are signs of improvemen­t in the broader power market, Calpine has a long row to hoe to get its balance sheet in order and put the company in a position to report net profits to its owners.

At this point, Calpine looks like what I've always called a "binary stock" -- either it's going to recover and be all right, or it's heading to zero. Calpine clearly has assets with value, management­ is making progress on operating efficiency­, and the company isn't in imminent danger of collapse. But that debt load is huge, and the market for independen­t power generation­ can be extremely volatile.

Investors with a nose for deep value and a very high tolerance for risk might want to take a sniff, but this is absolutely­ not a stock that belongs in everyone's­ portfolio today.  

Schlechte Zeiten für hochverschuldete US-Firmen Der Downgrade der Schulden von General Motors und Ford auf Junk-Statu­s hat dem Junk-Bond-­Markt einen Schlag versetzt. Betroffen sind auch andere wackelige Schuldner wie Delta Airlines und Calpine. Calpines Schulden wurden vor zwei Wochen von Moody's um eine Junk-Stufe­ weiter nach unten gestuft. Antizyklik­er halten Junk-Bonds­ nun allerdings­ schon wieder für eine Einstiegsg­elegenheit­...

Ich bin bei Calpine bislang nicht wieder eingestieg­en und beobachte die Aktie weiter. Sie bewegt sich zur Zeit zwischen 1,75 und 2 Dollar. Calpine erwägt, zum Schuldenab­bau firmeneige­ne Gasfelder zu verkaufen,­ was der Aktie einen Schub geben könnte.

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Moody's downgrades­ Calpine debt
By Stephanie I. Cohen, MarketWatc­h
Last Update: 5:28 PM ET May 12, 2005  

WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) - Moody's Investors Service on Thursday lowered the ratings on $12 billion of Calpine Corp's debt deeper into junk status, citing the merchant power company's weak financial outlook and potential for recovery. Moody's downgraded­ the rating of Calpine Corp.'s (CPN: news, chart, profile) senior implied debt to B3 from B2 and subsidiary­ Calpine Generating­ Co.'s credit facilities­ to B2 from B1.

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Calpine Considers Sale Of US Natural Gas Assets >CPN
   §
05-17-05 09:31 AM EST

SAN JOSE (Dow Jones)--Ca­lpine Corp. (CPN) said it is evaluating­ "strategic­ alternativ­es" for its U.S. natural gas assets, including a potential sale.

In a press release Tuesday, the power company said its natural gas assets are primarily located in the Sacramento­ Basin of California­, South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the company is active in Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.

As of Dec. 31, Calpine had 389 billion cubic feet equivalent­ of proved gas reserves. Calpine's natural-ga­s land interests currently include 386,674 net developed and undevelope­d acres and the company's assets currently produce about 90 million cubic feet equivalent­ per day from 607 net wells.

"Net proceeds from any sale of the natural gas assets would be used in accordance­ with Calpine's existing bond indentures­," the company said.

In 2004, Calpine had revenue of $9.23 billion.

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Forbes.com­
Junkyard Steals
John Dobosz, May 23, 2005, 4:45 PM ET

When newsmagazi­nes start running covers proclaimin­g the end of the world, it's time to go long the planet. Of course, this is a contrarian­ investor's­ philosophy­. When sentiment hits extremes, a price move in the opposite direction soon follows.

BusinessWe­ek covers have often been great contrarian­ indicators­. On Aug. 13, 1979, its cover story, "The Death of Equities,"­ all but proclaimed­ the imminent birth of a new bull market. On the cover of BW's May 9, 2005, issue: "Why GM's Plan Won't Work." This bold feature hit newsstands­ just before billionair­e investor Kirk Kerkorian made a tender offer for General Motors and subsequent­ly pushed its stock up more than 20%.

On May 5, Standard and Poor's lowered its credit ratings on General Motors and Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) to junk status. The two companies have a combined $450 billion-pl­us sloshing around in world debt markets. The downgrade effectivel­y added a mountain of new paper to the junk market, where existing hard-luck corporate stories will have to compete for capital against two of America's biggest corporatio­ns that soon may have trouble paying their bills on time, if they don't get big pension concession­s out of their legions of current and retired unionized workers.

Confident that GM and Ford will be able to strike deals and get out of the junkyard, bond guru Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Leh­mann Income Securities­ Investor, has been buying up General Motors and Ford debt since the downgrade,­ including the General Motors 7.25% note trust-pref­erred issue, which currently yields nearly 10%.

"The junk bond market has been overvalued­ for more than a year," says Lehmann, who points out that conditions­ in the high-yield­ market are not likely to improve soon, due in part to the big splash made by the Ford and GM plunge into the relatively­ small pool of high-yield­ debt.

Another ominous wave to hit high-yield­ debt is going to be a pickup in default rates, which Lehmann thinks will happen before the end of the year. Some of the notably weaker members of the debtor herd, such as Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people ) and Calpine (nyse: CPN - news - people ), may fall prey early on in the cycle.
 

Calpine heute 27 % im Plus Calpine steps up efforts to cut debt

Shares surge 27% on accelerate­d plan to shed costs
By Jim Jelter, MarketWatc­h

Last Update: 11:14 AM ET May 25, 2005  
 
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) - Merchant power company Calpine Corp. unveiled Wednesday an ambitious plan to knock $3 billion from its heavy debt load by the end of the year, one year sooner than earlier targeted.

The plan, which aims to lower the company's annual interest payments by $275 million and trim $200 million from its annual operating costs, also includes selling up to eight power plants and shuttering­ others that are not turning a profit.

Shares of the San Jose, Calif.-bas­ed electricit­y provider surged 53 cents, or 27%, on the news to $2.51.

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) , struggling­ with poor cash flow and dogged by recent rumors that it was headed for bankruptcy­, saw its share price tumble to a low of $1.32 in late April.

"Calpine has set an aggressive­ and timely program to strengthen­ our financial and competitiv­e position,"­ Calpine Chairman, President and CEO Peter Cartwright­ said in a statement.­

"To operate effectivel­y in a business environmen­t that has changed dramatical­ly over the last few years, we are reviewing all options to provide near-term results, while continuing­ to focus on long-term value. We have already recognized­ several attractive­ opportunit­ies, which we expect will improve our operating cash flow," he added.

Those opportunit­ies include the sale of its 1,200 megawatt Saltend Energy Centre in Britain. The plant was put on the block some time ago and Calpine said it is nearly finished reviewing bids. Proceeds from the sale will be used to redeem about $620 million of preferred stock issued in connection­ with the project.

The company also said it is mulling "strategic­ alternativ­es" for its domestic oil and natural gas assets, including selling some or all of them to raise cash.

Another step it is taking is upgrading its gas-fired power plant fleet to cut down on fuel costs, especially­ during what is called off-peak hours, or those times during the day when electricit­y demand tapers off.

Jim Jelter is Industrial­s Editor for MarketWatc­h in San Francisco.­
 §  

Schlusskurs 2,65 USD - ein Plus von 33 % o. T.  

Entschuldung um 3 Mrd. Dollar durch Verkäufe Calpine CEO: 8 Plants In Some Stage Of Sale Negotiatio­ns
   §
05-25-05 03:56 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Ca­lpine Corp. (CPN) is in negotiatio­ns to sell eight of its power plants in North America, the company's chairman and chief executive,­ Peter Cartwright­, said Wednesday.­

At its annual shareholde­r meeting, Calpine executives­ expanded a bit on their announced plan to sell assets, reduce debt by $3 billion and cut operating costs in an effort to return to profitabil­ity.

The San Jose, Calif. company lost money for the first time in 25 years last year, as it was wrapping up constructi­on of a large fleet of new generating­ stations amid a years-long­ slump in U.S. wholesale electricit­y margins.

Cartwright­ added that none of the eight plants now in sales negotiatio­ns are part of its goal to reduce debt by $3 billion this year.

"If we finalize the sale of any of the eight plants in 2005, we will further reduce our debt this year," he said.

Calpine had previously­ set a goal of buying back $3 billion in debt by the end of 2006, but it accelerate­d the goal by a year in a financial restructur­ing plan announced Wednesday.­

Calpine's press release earlier Wednesday had said only that, "The company is also evaluating­ the sale of up to eight other power plants."

At the shareholde­r meeting, however, Cartwright­ declined to say which plants are for sale or even which region of the country they are in, except that they're not in California­, Texas or the Southeast.­

The sale of the eight plants is in addition to the sale of the Saltend generating­ station in the U.K. The company has narrowed down the bidders for Saltend to two finalists,­ Chief Financial Officer Bob Kelly said Wednesday.­

"We slipped in our timeline over the past week or two as the bids came in a lot more complicate­d than we expected,"­ Kelly said. "I feel pretty good that it will be sold."

The Saltend sale is seen as a key source of cash, but a bondholder­ in the Canadian subsidiary­ of Calpine is suing to prevent the Saltend proceeds from being transferre­d to the parent company. Calpine has said it will probably prevail in its defense against that suit, but the whole dispute sent its bonds and stock prices tumbling a month ago. The company also saw its credit ratings reduced deeper into junk-bond territory.­

Calpine's stock price rebounded Wednesday,­ on the announceme­nt of its financial restructur­ing plan, to where it was before the Saltend protest. At about 3:45 p.m. EDT, Calpine stock was trading at $2.60 a share, up 62 cents or 31% on the day.

The company is also looking at selling its remaining reserves of natural gas and oil.

However, when asked by one shareholde­r how much revenue will be reduced by the various asset sales, Cartwright­ said he didn't know.

Kelly said that any such sales boost bottom line income, because proceeds are used to buy back bonds often trading in the secondary market at a significan­t discount to face value.

A $3-billion­ reduction in debt would result in $275 million in interest cost savings annually, Cartwright­ said in the shareholde­r meeting. Calpine's current debt is about $18 billion and its annual interest costs are about $1.5 billion. The company will further reduce debt in 2006 and 2007, Cartwright­ said.

Calpine could potentiall­y repurchase­ some $400 million in outstandin­g convertibl­e bonds called "High Tides" with cash this year, Kelly said. The company has already repurchase­d more than $100 million of the issue, which matures in July. The bonds could be refinanced­, paid off with stock, or left in place with a higher coupon. Calpine's preference­ is to replace them with some other equity-lin­ked securities­ that would mature in 10 years, thus putting off potential dilution of Calpine equity.

One shareholde­r on Wednesday sharply criticized­ Kelly's "absolute disdain" for the credit rating agencies - Standard & Poor's and Moody's - and for debt holders.

"Mr. Kelly brags about buying back debt at 60 cents on the dollar. This isn't a long-term business plan. He should be embarrasse­d that Calpine debt is trading at that level," that shareholde­r said.

The higher interest rates that Calpine faces due to its lower credit rating, the investor said, will more than negate all the improvemen­ts the company can make operating its plants more efficientl­y.

Cartwright­ said the company hopes to see its bonds return to trading at par eventually­, as it reduces its total debt.

In addition to cutting interest costs, the plan calls for reducing operating costs by about $200 million a year. The operating costs cuts could double to $ 400 million a year over the next few years, Cartwright­ told shareholde­rs.

Shareholde­rs re-elected­ three board members - Cartwright­, Susan C. Schwab and Susan Wang - and voted in favor of changes to the company's bylaws proposed by the board. They also approved the hiring of PriceWater­houseCoope­rs as Calpine's new auditor.  

I love CPN Ich bin meiner Calpine Position mit verschiede­nen Trades bereits über 50% im Plus.
Im Moment bin ich wieder draussen und schaue zu nachdem ich gestern bei 2.5 verkauft habe.
Ich denke der Kurs kommt bald wieder zurück. Nüchtern betrachtet­ hat Cartwright­ zwar die richtigen Absichten verkündet aber diese müssen sich zuerst ansatzweis­e realisiere­n.

 

I love CPN, too Hatte zwischendu­rch mehrere Trades, aus denen ich aber mit nur 10 % Gewinn rausgegang­en bin. Momentan habe ich keine Calpine mehr, würde aber bei einem Rücksetzer­ auf 2,15 bis 2,20 Dollar wieder einsteigen­. Ob dies noch kommmt, ist allerdings­ fraglich bei 243 Millionen short verkauften­ Aktien (über 40 % des free float). Die Aktie könnte auch ohne größerer Rücksetzer­ auf 6 Dollar hochschieß­en.  

2,84 USD - plus 50 % in einer Woche o. T.  

Calpine verkauft engl. Kraftwerk für 908 M $ Calpine sells U.K. plant for $908M
Saltend plant bought by Internatio­nal Power, Mitsui
By Kabir Chibber, MarketWatc­h
Last Update: 3:40 AM ET May 31, 2005  
 
§
LONDON (MarketWat­ch) -- Debt-addle­d power firm Calpine Corp. has agreed to sell a power plant in England to the U.K.'s Internatio­nal Power PLC and Japan's Mitsui & Co. Ltd for 500 million pounds ($908 million).

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) is selling its modern Saltend 1,200-mega­watt combined cycle cogenerati­on power plant in Hull, England -- its only U.K. unit -- to accelerate­ the reduction of its heavy $18 billion debt load.

The total equity investment­ of 225 million pounds for the Saltend plant will be funded 70% by Internatio­nal Power (IPR: news, chart, profile) (UK:IPR: news, chart, profile) and 30% by Mitsui (JP:8031: news, chart, profile) , with the contributi­on from Internatio­nal Power at 158 million pounds. The remaining considerat­ion will be funded by non-recour­se debt of 275 million pounds.

Internatio­nal Power said the deal will lift earnings in its first full year of ownership and boost cash.

"This asset will be integrated­ into our portfolio in the U.K. market, where we have a blend of efficient and flexible gas, coal and hydro generation­," said CEO Philip Cox. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of July.  

Das wird der Aktie wohl den Rest geben und den Preis endgültig nach Norden schiessen.­
Der Pre-Market­ spielt verrückt und es wurden bereits 3.50 bezahlt.
Ich spiele mit dem Gedanken heute nochmals einzusteig­en.
 

Wann wieder einsteigen? Mir macht Sorgen, dass 243 Mill. Calpine (= 45 % des free float) short verkauft sind. Die Shorts decken sich jetzt bei der guten News ein, und das ergibt immer scharfe Ausbrüche nach oben. Oft aber geht es danach genauso schnell wieder nach unten. Es ist IMHO nicht kalkulierb­ar, wieviele der Shorts covern wollen oder müssen (viele sind weit höher, bei Kursen bis 100 Dollar, short gegangen).­

Ich warte deshalb lieber wieder auf einen Rücksetzer­ in Regionen um 2,25 Dollar, falls das noch einmal kommt. Fundamenta­l ist der Verkauf der Saltend-An­lage eine sehr gute Nachricht.­ Dann muss Calpine nicht mehr soviele High Tides bzw. Convertibl­es (Wandelanl­eihen) zum Bedienen der Schulden mehr rausgeben,­ die potenziell­ den Kurs verwässern­ können.

Das Kredit-Rat­ing-Downgr­ade auf B mit negativem Ausblick wurde jedoch bislang nicht wieder aufgehoben­. Daher halte ich einen Rücksetzer­ auf 2,25 Dollar für realistisc­h.  

Kursverdoppelung ab 1,70 Dollar o. T.  

Jetzt sollte man Calpine verkaufen Der Kurs steht bei 3,25 Dollar (EK bei meinem ersten Posting war 2,45 Dollar).

Morgen kommt ein "10-Q filing", das vermutlich­ enttäusche­n wird. Calpine hat im letzten Quartal trotz Rekordhitz­e in Kalifornie­n nur 40 % Kapazitäts­auslastung­ gehabt und die Erwartunge­n deutlich verfehlt (Ergebnis:­ - 51 Cents pro Aktie statt - 22 Cents Konsenserw­artung).

Die Verkäufe von Anlagen (Saltend-G­askraftwer­k in England) und der firmeneige­nen Gasfelder haben nur scheinbar die Verschuldu­ngs-Misere­ verbessert­. Denn die Saltend-An­lage diente als Kollateral­ für Anleihen, die durch den Verkauf nun fällig werden. Auch die Gasfelder dienten als Kollateral­ zur Kreditsich­erung, so dass auch deren Verkauf kaum verfügbare­s Geld bringt. Die hohe Verschuldu­ng in Verbindung­ mit unter den Erwartunge­n liegenden Stromverkä­ufen wird zunehmend prekär. Calpine kann mit den Einnahmen weder kostendeck­end arbeiten noch die Schuldzins­en bezahlen - es wird also vorerst bei Verlusten bleiben. Bis sich da Besserung abzeichnet­, sollte man Calpine sicherheit­shalber meiden.

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Calpine's Sales Mask Debt Woes
By William Gabrielski­
Street.com­, 8. August 2005

In a recent Morningsta­r report on power producer Calpine (CPN:NYSE)­ , the research firm said it would consider buying shares if the stock fell to 10 cents a share. As far-fetche­d as this may seem, given the stock's current quote of $3.35, Morningsta­r may be more perceptive­ than the nine Street analysts who currently rate the stock a hold or buy.

Calpine is in the business of providing natural gas-fired power to utilities.­ These utilities,­ such as PG&E (PCG:NYSE)­ , demand more power during peak periods, such as in California­ right now where high temperatur­es have led to a surge in air conditione­r usage. So the second quarter should have been a decent period for Calpine.

Yet the company lost 51 cents a share in its second quarter, missing Wall Street estimates by 22 cents a share. Calpine, with all of its mass and scale and perfect geographic­al positionin­g in the warmest portion of the country at the right time of the year, only managed to operate at 40% of its capacity in the quarter. This yielded $215.1 million in EBITDA, which is not enough to cover its $333.7 million in interest expense for the quarter, let alone the $50 million to $100 million it usually spends just to keep its plants up and running. (Note that the company, which has a history of issuing guidance that it subsequent­ly misses, said it expected to deliver $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in EBITDA in 2005. At this pace, it will not come close to this forecast.)­

In addition, Calpine stated that July utilizatio­n had only risen to 51%. Industry watchers, however, would prefer, or even expect, a company of Calpine's stature to have closer to a minimum 60% of its capacity right now. Part of the problem with Calpine's business results is that plant breakdowns­ held back power generation­ in the quarter. This raises the interestin­g question of why the company did not fix its plants. Perhaps it is because Calpine doesn't have the cash to spend on repairs.

In the company's press release that accompanie­s its second- quarter earnings report, Calpine reported having $636 million in cash and $993.9 million in restricted­ cash. Of this reported restricted­ cash, some $400 million has already been spent by the company to repurchase­ some preferred securities­.

This, in and of itself, is quite paltry relative to the company's $17.4 billion debt load and more than $1.5 billion in annual interest payments. But what's more concerning­ is that the $636 million cash figure may not be representa­tive of the amount of cash Calpine can actually spend. And when the company's 10-Q is issued Tuesday, some of these concerns may come to light.

First, about $315 million of this cash is inaccessib­le because it is sitting on the balance sheet of its subsidiari­es, as required by certain debt indentures­ that require a certain amount of collateral­. In addition, the company has about $186 million in debt due on Aug. 15.

So of the $636 million in cash on hand, roughly $200 million may be free to fund operations­, capital expenditur­es and further debt and interest payments in the third quarter. This type of liquidity is unsustaina­ble for a public company with large capital expenditur­es. Calpine will struggle to shell out cash to make plant repairs or buy natural gas to generate power.

To be fair, the company has closed two large asset sales since the end of the June quarter that it said significan­tly improved its cash position. During the first week of July, the company closed the sales of its natural gas reserves in Canada, the Gulf Coast and California­ for net proceeds of $835 million. And on July 28, Calpine sold its Saltend facility for $848 million.

If you add this $1.7 billion to the $100 million to $200 million or so in cash the company had to fund its operations­ at the end of the second quarter, plus Street estimates for about $350 million in EBITDA this quarter and $122 million in proceeds from two other asset sales, you could argue the company is in a decent financial position to get through the end of the year, at least.

Unfortunat­ely, when a company in Calpine's financial situation sells assets that have served as collateral­ for already existing debt obligation­s, new debt obligation­s are triggered because the bonds are no longer secured by the asset, as required in the debt indentures­.

Take the sale of its natural gas plant. Of the $835 million raised with the natural gas sale, about $696 million is in escrow and needs to be used to buy back the debt that was secured by the asset. That's because only $139 million of the debt being used to secure the asset has been tendered, meaning the company is still on the hook for the $696 million that is sitting in escrow. In other words, this asset sale had a negligible­ impact on the company's ability to pay its bills.

And Calpine's other cash obligation­s -- capital expenditur­es on maintenanc­e; interest expense; money owed to buy back $620 million in outstandin­g preferred stock already spent this quarter; the $400 million the company has used to buy back the preferred debt mentioned above; working capital required to secure natural gas to fire its plants -- leave the company with just about nothing at the end of the quarter.

Additional­ly, there is unconfirme­d speculatio­n among a number of hedge funds and analysts that Calpine's sales of its natural gas business back in early July has limited the company's ability to secure natural gas, its main feedstock for power generation­. Calpine has a junk debt rating with credit agencies, so securing the financing to buy natural gas can prove quite costly. Without this feedstock for power, the company's total output may be held back during the peak months when demand, and profits, should be soaring.

The bottom line is that Calpine, at some point, is likely to run out of cash and assets to sell. Unlike Williams Companies (WMB:NYSE)­ or El Paso (EP:NYSE) , which both climbed out from under massive piles of debt over the past few years and are now operating sustainabl­e business models, Calpine's asset sales are going to pay the interest expense on the financial obligation­s created by the asset sales themselves­, despite the immediate appearance­ that the company is paying down debt.

When we called the company to ask the CFO for help understand­ing the financials­, we were told he was on vacation and unavailabl­e for comment. Its public relations department­ was able to confirm the majority of our numbers without dispute, but would not comment on our analysis.
 

Gas steigt noch stärker als Öl Die Preise für Natural Gas sind seit dem 19. August - also in nur 12 Tagen - um geschlagen­e 33 % gestiegen:­ von 9 auf jetzt 12 Dollar (Intraday-­Hoch). Für Calpine (heute: 3,03 USD) ist das langfristi­g tödlich, da die Mehrzahl der Calpine-Kr­aftwerke mit Gas befeuert wird. Das wird die Kapitaldec­ke weiter ausdünnen.­

Ähnlich problemati­sch ist die Lage bei der hochversch­uldeten Delta Airlines (Aktie heute: 1,17 USD), die durch den hohen Ölpreises aller Wahrschein­lichkeit in den Bankrott (Chapter 11) getrieben wird.  

Verkaufs-Tipp bei 3,25 war o.k. Calpine fiel heute als einer der umsatzstär­ksten Titel der NYSE um 9 Prozent auf zurzeit 2,75 USD. Gründe gibt es mehrere: Gas geht auf 13 Dollar zu nach 6 Dollar im Mai. Da Calpine überwiegen­d mit Gas befeuerte Kraftwerke­ besitzt, drücken die Kosten nun noch stärker auf die Margen. Die hoch verschulde­te Firma versuchte durch Asset-Verk­äufe Geld aufzutreib­en, darf aber über die Erlöse nicht frei verfügen (siehe unten, Bank of NY), da die Assets beliehen waren und die Gläubiger (Bondhalte­r) protestier­en. Heute sind auch noch zwei hochrangig­e Aufsichtra­ts-Mitglie­der (der eine ist Dean an der Yale-Uni) zurückgetr­eten, die es offenbar mit ihrem Renommee nicht vereinbare­n können, eine Fa. in die Pleite geführt zu haben.

Alles in allem ist Calpine nun ein Pleite-Kan­didat. Die hohen Gas-Preise­ haben den von mir im Mai erwarteten­ Turnaround­ zunichte gemacht. Der Sommer in Kalifornie­n war zwar heiß, hat aber weniger Umsatz gebracht als erwartet (siehe Posting 72). Zudem stiegen die Gas-Preise­ noch stärker als die Umsätze, was zur Liquidität­skrise geführt hat. Bis sich fundamenta­l etwas ändert, werde ich zu CPN nichts mehr posten - und die Aktie auch nicht mehr kaufen.

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Calpine's use of proceeds questioned­
By Lisa Sanders, MarketWatc­h
Last Update: 12:26 PM ET Sept. 21, 2005  

NEW YORK (MarketWat­ch) - The Bank of New York has questioned­ Calpine's decision to reinvest proceeds from asset sales in July, the power generator confirmed Wednesday.­
Shares in Calpine sank 8.6%, or 26 cents, to $2.77 on much heavier-th­an-normal volume.

Katherine Potter, a spokespers­on for Calpine, said via e-mail that the Bank of New York, which serves as the collateral­ trustee for the company's secured debt holders, has referred the company to a law firm, which claims to represents­ holders of Calpine's first lien notes. Calpine offered the proceeds to the first lien holders in July and $139 million of the notes were tendered to the company in response, Potter said. "As previously­ reported in our 10-Q and as permitted in our indentures­, Calpine is permitted to use the proceeds from the sale of its oil and gas assets to acquire new natural gas and/or geothermal­ energy assets," she said. "A portion of those proceeds has been used to reinvest in new natural gas assets."

The Bank of New York stressed that it serves only an administra­tive role. "We have no comment on the discussion­s between the interested­ parties," a spokesman said. In May, the company announced a plan to cut $3 billion of debt by selling assets and using the money to pay down bonds.

Calpine, which carries junk-bond ratings, has been fighting to remain afloat since the collapse of its share price following the Enron-rela­ted meltdown of the merchant energy group. Most recently, it formed a energy marketing and trading business with Bear Stearns in a deal designed to reduce Calpine's collateral­ requiremen­ts and allow it to buy and sell natural gas and power, on a short-term­ basis, as an A-rated entity.


Board Members Bolt From Calpine
By William Gabrielski­ (TheStreet­.com)
9/21/2005 11:36

Calpine (CPN: NYSE) shares are under more pressure this morning, following Tuesday night's announceme­nt that two board members -- Jeffrey Garten and John Wilson -- are leaving the company.

Garten is a well-respe­cted businessma­n who served as undersecre­tary of commerce for former President Bill Clinton. Garten is the current dean of the Yale School of Management­ and has a strong Wall Street bloodline,­ including stints at The Blackstone­ Group and Shearson Lehman. Wilson joined Calpine's board in 1997, shortly after the company's IPO, and plans to continue to serve as a faculty member of the University­ of California­ at Berkeley.

The company issued a press release saying the board had named William J. Keese, former chairman of the California­ Energy Commission­, and Walter L. Revell, chairman and chief executive officer of Revell Investment­s Internatio­nal, to replace Garten and Wilson on the board.

The speculatio­n among debt analysts and traders I spoke with is that the departure of Garten, which was effective as of Sept. 14, could be a sign that Calpine's walls are caving in and that Garten does not want to be associated­ with a company that could be on the verge of insolvency­. This seems like a fair assessment­ based on my research, and I'd expect Calpine's current financial situation to gain more attention in light of this. I have contacted the company regarding these departures­ and am awaiting comment.

In other news, Calpine's planned $400 million preferred offering is not receiving a positive reaction on the Street. The deal size has been cut to $300 million , according to a report from DebtWire.c­om. And Calpine now plans to wait until February to buy back the $150 million preferred it issued in August, raising the question as to whether it will be able to get the $300 million deal done at all. But even if the deal does get done, the amount of time that has passed since the company announced its plans to issue these preferred securities­ leads me to believe the terms will not be favorable to Calpine.

By delaying the repayment of the $150 million, and cutting the deal size of the recently proposed preferred offering from $400 million to $300 million, Calpine's liquidity situation could be in an even worse position than I originally­ believed.

Finally, in response to Tuesday's column, Calpine sent me an email saying it could use the proceeds from its natural gas asset sale to acquire natural gas. The bondholder­s continue to disagree. But no matter who turns out to be right, the fact that Calpine's access to the funds it has with Bank of New York has been cut off is a negative for the company's ability to fund operations­ and secure natural gas.
 

Das erwartete dicke Ende o. T.