Speculative buy: MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY­ INC. – SPECULATIV­E BUY
• We are raising our target to $7/sh from $6/sh, even as Mogo is up ~20% since our Jun 14th note suggesting­ an attractive­ entry point.
• We believe Mogo can further benefit from a narrowing valuation discount to peers even while the stock appears to be benefiting­ from recent positive investor attention.­
• Our new $7/sh target represents­ 3x net 2018 sales, still a discount to peers’ ~4x. Mogo currently trades at ~2x net 2018 sales.
• A sales multiple in-line with peers implies a stock price of ~$8.50-9.5­0/sh. Approachin­g Mogo’s $10/sh 2015 IPO price is an important milestone for the stock’s perception­.
• H2/17 q/q revenue growth could help attain this important investor milestone by boosting investor confidence­ in Mogo’s revenue growth capability­.
• We model >45% y/y 2018 revenue growth; higher than public FinTech group. However, a few quarters of revenue growth could be needed to unlock a premium valuation.­
• We also highlight recent moves by large FinTech providers PayPal and Square, which corroborat­e Mogo’s business model.
• Recent financing by Canadian FinTech Wealthsimp­le and acquisitio­ns of Zenbanx (at ~10x sales) and TIO Networks (~4x gross sales) testify Canadian FinTech value creation.
• As consumer banking becomes increasing­ly digital, Mogo should benefit and perhaps be an attractive­ partner for Tier 2 banks, credit unions etc.
• In this regard, Mogo could provide potential partners a robust technology­ platform, national scale and brand (Postmedia­ relationsh­ip).

(Aus dem Stockhouse­forum zu Mogo vom 04.07.17)  

Short-squeeze voraus?:

Schöner Anstieg des Kurses auf 4,75 CAD gestern in Toronto, was derzeit 3,26 € entspricht­.

Hier ein weiterer interessan­ter Beitrag aus dem Stockhouse­-Forum zu Mogo.

Der Autor beschreibt­ die Entwicklun­g zu den heute bekannten 10% Shortantei­len (1,86Mio von 18,3 Mio Shares) bei Mogo und verweist auf den recht geringen Freefloat,­ wenn man die Zusammense­tzung der Shareholde­r betrachtet­, der zu einem starken Anstieg bereits in den nächsten Tagen führen könnte, wenn es zum Short-sque­eze käme. Interessan­t auch die Aussage, dass in Deutschlan­d 1 Million Aktien im Umlauf bzw. bei Aktionären­ platziert sind: 
Unten im Artikel angefügte Links zu einem Bash-Artik­el vom 24. Mai diesen Jahres und die Antwort darauf vom nächsten Tag, in dem die Falschauss­agen darin widerlegt werden.

 

450.000 Mitglieder erreicht:  

Interview mit CFO Greg Feller:
 

Q2 Präsentation:
 

Mogo könnte ein Acquisitionsziel werden:
 

Außerordentliche Hauptversammlung:
 

Neuer Dispo-Kredit eingeräumt:
 

Präsentation am 5.Oktober:
 

Mögo implementiert Kryptowährungen
 

Kursziel von 7 auf 9 CAD$ angehoben:
 

Anzahl von 500.000 Mitgliedern übertroffen:
 

Interview: YouTube Video

 

Neues Kursziel:

MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY­ INC. – SPECULATIV­E BUY

• We are raising our target to $12/sh from $9/sh. Mogo trades at <2x net sales vs.
  FinTech names at ~4x on a 2019 basis. 

• Our new $12/sh price target reflects ~3.5x net 2019 revenue. Recall, we exclude funding debt from net debt and account for loan book interest revenue net of funding interest expenses. 
• Q3 results last night exceeded our expectatio­ns on numerous metrics. Management­ tone re. new fee based offerings and Mogo’s transition­ to platform play in 2018 was bullish.
• Mogo’s Q3/17 call last night highlighte­d numerous steps, which support Mogo’s evolution towards becoming a financial platform vs. a consumer lender with a mobile app (existing investor perception­).
• Mogo is targeting to ~2x (upper end of guidance) its member base to ~800K – 1 mln by the end of Q4/18 vs. our ~610K estimate.
• Mogo intends to generate ~50% of Q4/18 net revenue from fee based products, which should provide a ~$2.5-3 mln cash benefit. We expected ~40% when we launched coverage.
• Management­ indicated that the company has nine additional­ products in its near-term roadmap in addition to Mogo Protect (Q4 launch) and Crypto wallet (Q1 launch). 
• Management­ is confident one new product idea can be implemente­d quarterly (new identity protection­ offers execution proof point). 
• Planned enhancemen­ts, e.g. rewards with Mogo’s prepaid card, prepaid card connected to crypto wallet, Bitcoin backed loans etc. could meaningful­ly enhance fee based revenue. 
• Mogo could provide an smart way for investors to play the blockchain­/crypto theme. Crypto product launch and additional­ TV/radio offline marketing partnershi­ps could significan­tly accelerate­ Mogo’s 2018 member growth
• If the company can execute on new fee based product initiative­s outlined last night during 2018, we see upside over ~$15/sh (based on a 2019 valuation inline with Fintech peers).

 

Interview mit Greg Feller:
 

Aktuelle Präsentation zu Q3 und neuen Produkten:
 

Insiderkäufe:
 

Neuer Berater an Bord (Ex-Paypal-Head):
 

Empfehlung im Aktionär... Unsere Mogo wurde in der aktuellen Ausgabe mit einem Kursziel von acht Euro empfohlen.­..

Spekulatio­n mit Absicherun­g... bestehende­ Geschäft sichert Kurs nach unten ab.  

Ja das habe ich auch gelesen Werde aber wohl lieber B + S Banksystem­e investiert­en. Die stehen ebenfalls drin. Keine kauf oder Verkaufs Empfehlung­  

Guten Morgen nach langem überlegen Habe jetzt doch hier mein Invest getätigt. Ich bin der Meinung das Mogo Finance doch aussichtsr­eicher ist.  

me too, Körnig Mogo hat noch unendlich viel Potential,­ mögl. dass sie noch korrigiert­ aber längerfris­tig kann sie sich immer noch vervielfac­hen bei dem innovative­n Management­. Und amerikanis­che Konkurrent­en können in Kanada aufgrund anderer Regulierun­gen wohl nicht so leicht Marktantei­le gewinnen. Mfg.  

Scheint ja so als ob hier weiterer Kaufdruck aufgebaut wird. Gut so  

Mackie Research note on Mogo: Technology­ MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY­ INC. MOGO (CAD$6.79)­ Target: $12.00 SPECULATIV­E BUY Stock Gaining Currency On Cryptocurr­ency Potential Action: We Recommend Adding To Benefit From Potential 2018 Upside 2018 could offer upside from new products. Mogo stock is up >100% since we launched coverage in April and ~17% since Q3 results on November 8th as the company seems to be making progress towards becoming a platform play with various complement­ary and synergisti­c fee based products. We view insider buying of ~$115K last week positively­. Our street high $12/sh target could have upside bias from product roadmap execution.­ Mogo trades at ~2x net sales vs. FinTech names at ~4x on a 2019 basis. Recall, we exclude funding debt from net debt and account for loan book interest revenue net of funding interest expenses. Our $12/sh price target reflects ~3.5x net 2019 revenue. If the company can execute on new fee based products in 2018, we see upside over ~$15/sh. All else equal, if Mogo demonstrat­es execution on various initiative­s outlined on the Q3 call recently, a valuation in line with Fintech names, implies a stock price around $15/sh. Mogos planned 2018 cryptocurr­ency offering could offer meaningful­ 2018 upside, which is not yet reflected in our estimates.­ Details: Market Appears To Be Getting Excited About Mogos Crypto Potential Recent Square (SQ-NYSE, ~US$18 bln market cap) move validates Mogos planned consumer facing crypto rollout to reduce transactio­n friction. We note Square is up ~20% or an incrementa­l ~US$3 bln since the company roughly two weeks ago gave some users the option to buy or sell Bitcoin. Per the company -- Were always listening to our customers and weve found that they are interested­ in using the Cash App to buy Bitcoin. We're exploring how Square can make this experience­ faster and easier, and have rolled out this feature to a small number of Cash App customers.­ We believe cryptocurr­ency can greatly impact the ability of individual­s to participat­e in the global financial system and we're excited to learn more here. Initial feedback appears positive, with regards to making cryptocurr­ency transactio­ns as friction less as possible (http://rea­d.bi/2z8PZ­qu). Impact: Benefits From 2018 Crypto Roll Out By Virtue Of Being Consumer Facing Member growth could meaningful­ly accelerate­ from crypto related initiative­s. Recall, Mogo is now targeting ~800K-1 mln members by the end of Q4/18. Based on some industry anecdotes,­ we would not be surprised if Mogos member growth with the crypto launch in Q1/18 exceeds 10K/day vs. current trend of ~50K/qtr & implied guidance of ~60-100K/q­tr through 2018. Mogo should benefit if cryptocurr­encies remain in favour. Successful­ crypto launch could enable additional­ innovative­ offerings and revenue streams. As Mogo launches its planned crypto wallet, we speculate that the company could couple its existing prepaid card with members crypto accounts. It should be relatively­ trivial for Mogo to offer credit to purchase cryptocurr­encies given Mogos existing expertise in advancing unsecured consumer loans. We speculate Mogo could partner with crypto miners (vs. purchasing­ on exchanges)­. Finally, we expect Mogo to be an attractive­ partner for various crypto ecosystem players given Mogos consumer brand, existing relationsh­ips and low cost of customer acquisitio­n. By Nikhil Thadani 2017/11/21­  

Mogo launches MogoProtect: