The calendar at Graphite One is filling with make-or-break dates, but none looms larger than April 26. That Saturday, the U.S. International Trade Commission will deliver its final ruling on tariffs for Chinese graphite imports — a decision that could instantly transform the economics of the company’s Alaska-to-Ohio supply chain.

For now, the U.S. imports every ounce of its natural and synthetic graphite. Graphite One’s entire thesis rests on ending that dependency by building a fully domestic, vertically integrated operation. The ITC’s verdict would either hand the company a competitive moat or leave it exposed to the same cheap Chinese material that has kept the market closed for decades.

A Rare Earth Surprise in the Granite

While the tariff clock ticks, a separate discovery is quietly reshaping the project’s potential. Independent tests on drill cores from the Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska have confirmed the presence of five key magnetic rare earth elements — neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and others critical to wind turbines, electric vehicles, and defense hardware. The metals are hosted in garnet minerals, a geological quirk that carries a notable advantage: unlike typical rare earth deposits, the garnet matrix contains negligible levels of toxic byproducts like uranium or thorium.

A U.S. national laboratory will begin testing extraction methods later this year. If the economics pencil out, Graphite One could produce rare earths as a co-product alongside graphite, potentially flipping the mine’s entire financial equation.

Lucid Locks In, EXIM Ups the Ante

On the commercial front, the company has been quietly building demand-side insurance. Lucid Group signed a second non-binding supply agreement — this one covering natural graphite for battery anodes over an initial five-year term. The material would be mined in Alaska and processed at a planned facility in northeast Ohio, where synthetic graphite production is slated to begin in 2028. By 2032, management expects the Ohio plant to run at full capacity, churning out enough anode material for roughly two million electric vehicles annually.

The capital required to get there is staggering, but government backing is taking shape. The U.S. Export-Import Bank has significantly increased its non-binding letters of intent: $670 million is now on the table for the Alaska mine, and $1.4 billion for the Ohio processing plant. Graphite One is simultaneously in talks with leading investment banks to cover the remaining 30% of project costs.

The Stock’s Wild Ride

Investors have taken notice, though the trajectory has been anything but smooth. The shares recently traded around $0.85, up roughly 22% over the past month but still down about 27% year-to-date. The stock hit a 52-week low of $0.42 before nearly doubling, yet remains well below its January peak of $1.52. With a relative strength index near 62 and annualized volatility approaching 79%, the equity is pricing in what Graphite One fundamentally is: a high-stakes bet on political tailwinds and regulatory timing.

A Tight Window for Permits

The company is racing against a hard deadline. All federal permits must be secured by the end of September 2026 to qualify for the FAST-41 expedited review process. Beyond that, the accelerated timeline collapses. The goal remains a construction start in 2027, with first production three years later.

China controls nearly all global graphite processing and has already begun throttling exports, giving the project a geopolitical tailwind that few U.S. mining ventures can claim. But the ITC ruling on April 26 will test how much of that political momentum translates into hard market advantage — and whether Graphite One’s twin bets on graphite and rare earths can survive the distance.

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Fresh Graphite One information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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Fresh Graphite One information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.